I wish to thank a number of colleagues who shared my concerns about the dangers associated with potential military strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities. Each, in his or her own way, contributed significantly to this study. First and foremost, I wish to thank General Amos A. Jordan, former CEO of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and retired Brigadier General in the United States Army. His friendship, advice, and understanding of foreign policy helped guide this paper. I am equally indebted to Dr. Scott Miller, an exceptional scientist, educator, and Director of Radiobiological Studies at the University of Utah. Few have done more to mitigate the dangers of radiation on human populations and the environment. We are grateful to him and members of the Chernobyl Forum for their exceptional scientific work assessing the aftermath of the Chernobyl nuclear accident. Dr. Gary Sandquist, former Director of the University of Utah’s Nuclear Engineering Program, helped us assess the impact of military strikes and the risks from the release of toxic gases and radioactive agents using Gaussian plume models. Dr. Farshid Towfighi, an expert on Iran’s emergency preparedness and civil defense capabilities and former director general of the Iranian Red Cross, provided invaluable assistance with research relating to case studies on Isfahan, Natanz, Arak, and Bushehr. Amir Soltani, operations director at Omid for Iran, helped direct the research and preparation of the study, with assistance from our intern, Zachary Stickney. I am particularly grateful to several colleagues for their thoughtful, patient, and penetrating reviews of the paper, among them, David Jordan, and Afshin Molavi, Senior Middle East advisor for the New America Foundation and Karim Sadjadpour, senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Finally, I would like to acknowledge Kirk Jowers and the Hinckley Institute of Politics for their continued cooperation, encouragement, and support.

Many scholars, soldiers, scientists, and statesmen in Iran, the United States of America, Israel, and the Arab world have worked tirelessly to prevent and protect future generations from the scourge of another war. It is to those generations that I dedicate this study.

Khosrow B. Semnani