To read more, view or download the chapter HUMAN CASUALTIES
  • Our estimates for casualties in case of military strikes range from 5,500 to 85,000 at the four sites: Isfahan, Natanz, Arak, and Bushehr.
  • The probability of an attack on the Isfahan Uranium Conversion Facility is high. Our assessment indicates that close to 1,000 workers (out of 2,000) will be killed in the strike on the facility.
  • In addition, the casualties resulting from exposure to toxic plumes could range between 5,000-70,000 in urban areas around the city of Isfahan.
  • The probability of an attack on Natanz is high. With 2,000 total workers onsite, we estimate 1,000 casualties resulting from a strike. In addition, the casualties from toxic plumes in the Natanz rural region could range between 1,700-7,000 people.
  • With respect to Arak, we estimate 500 onsite casualties. Additional casualties would be of serious concern should and if the Heavy Water Reactor becomes operational for an extended length of time prior to strikes. We estimate casualties from exposure to radiation at between 500 and 3,600 people.
  • We predict 3,000 casualties at the site in the event of an attack on Bushehr power plant. With prevailing winds in the area blowing Northwest toward Bushehr, a city with a population of 240,000 just 10 km away, an attack against the Bushehr nuclear power plant could additionally expose this population to dangerous radiation pollution. If only 1-5% of the population of Bushehr get exposed to radiation, the casualties can range between 2,400 to 12,000 people.



  1. That’s definitely the one side of the coin. What’s the other? For example, will Iran take this attack lying down, or will send its dogs all over the world, but especially Tel Aviv. What will be the human cost there? be objective and tell us, now.