To read more, view or download the EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
  • The Ayatollah’s Nuclear Gamble is a detailed, scientific discussion of the human and environmental consequences of an Israeli military strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. Years of careless fanaticism from Iran’s belligerent dictatorial theocracy has placed the lives of many Iranian citizens in danger.
  • In our assessment, it is highly likely that the physical and thermal casualties as the result of the strikes will exceed 5,000 personnel at the nuclear sites. The secondary civilian casualties as a result of exposure to the release of toxic and radioactive materials could increase this number to over 80,000 citizens.
  • Tens, and quite possibly, hundreds of thousands of civilians could be exposed to highly toxic chemical plumes and, in the case of the destruction of operational reactors, radioactive fallout in Arak and Bushehr.
  • The potential long-term political and psychological impact of military strikes on the Iranian population cannot be underestimated. An entire generation will likely feel enmity toward those who supported the attack, or failed to prevent it. Rather than dismissing them as “collateral damage,” strong moral, strategic, political, and military arguments exist for counting the Iranian people’s interests as a prime factor in the nuclear dispute.
  • Iran’s leaders risk a military confrontation that not only promises the destruction of Iran’s nuclear facilities, but also shackles generations to illness, misery, poverty, and dependence.



  1. This is an excellent paper published in a very opportune time, when there is talk of “red lines”…etc… Hope the sensible people of United States oppose these non sense of military attacks on Iran.